The board’s figures
Every board projection on this page comes from its own tables: the September 2026 count (preliminary) and projections for 2027, 2030, 2033 and 2036, with no change[1], under Scenario 1[1] and under Scenario 2[2]. The board rounds to the nearest 5. A percentage is students divided by permanent places; ours match every percentage the board prints. We show board figures only for the years the board publishes.
Our estimates
The board publishes school totals, not counts by neighbourhood or grade. For the explorer we split each school’s figures across 12 neighbourhood blocks. Four are the board’s own: Columbia Forest, Clair Hills West and the two Development Areas[6]. The other lines inside each school’s area are ours. We used 2021 census children[10][16], homes and new homes[12], the grade mix at each school[11], and the student flows the board’s own tables imply. For brothers and sisters we used a model of families fitted to Statistics Canada’s counts for Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo[15]. French Immersion shares come from the board’s Grade 1 class lists[17].
When you pick a rule for who can stay, the Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 cards start from the board’s figure and add or subtract what our model says that rule changes. At the board’s plan, they show the board’s figure exactly. Walking distances are our calculation from the board’s affected addresses[9]. For your own address, the board’s address tool is the authority.
What this page can’t know
- Where students live. The board publishes school totals, not neighbourhood counts, so ours are estimates. For Clair Hills West, the board’s tables and the census disagree by about 60 students.
- Whether the board’s 2027 tables already include the Grade 8 rule. We assume they do, because the board prints the rule under them[2]. If they don’t, Vista Hills and Laurelwood in 2027 are off by about 20 to 25.
- How many families would stay. We show how many could. Staying doesn’t guarantee a bus[5].
- The sibling rule. The board hasn’t set one beyond French Immersion siblings[3][5]. Our switch is a what-if, from a model of typical Waterloo Region families.
- Families move. Children who move in after the change go to the new school, and some students who stay will move away, so a long rule shrinks faster than a fixed count. We assume about 8% of staying students leave each year, the share of people in the area’s settled neighbourhoods who moved within a year at the 2021 census[10].
- Growth in the new subdivisions. The board’s figures imply the Development Areas grow from about 60 students now[1] to 90 to 110derived. If building is slower, fewer of them come to Vista Hills.
Two loose ends in the board’s figures
The board has given two counts for Scenario 1: about 200 current students in the Initial Report[1], and about 120 in its video[3]. We use the Initial Report’s, the only one with a breakdown. Separately, each scenario’s four schools add up to a different total from no change (table below); we couldn’t tell why.
Our neighbourhood split also carries a tension we can’t resolve from public figures: it reads the board’s 2027 Scenario 1 table as moving both Grade 7 and Grade 8 out of Columbia Forest, while the cards assume the table already keeps students going into Grade 8 where they are (point 2 above). The cards match the board at its plan either way; the size of a rule’s effect follows the first reading.
Some history
Vista Hills opened in 2016. A 2015 review moved Columbia Forest and Clair Hills from Edna Staebler to the new school, and sent Abraham Erb’s Grades 7 and 8 there too; a 2018 review sent those Grades 7 and 8 back to Laurelwood[1].